5 takeaways from the Women's Euro group stages
The Women’s Euros kicked off at the start of July and Catalina Bush and I launched an online app using the Value Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP) framework1. The app is being updated after every slate of games; you can find it here: https://catabush.shinyapps.io/vaep_tables/
The group stages wrapped up on Sunday so below are 5 takeaways using the VAEP data.
1. Esther is really, really good
Spain haven’t truly “struggled” over the last few years, but when they fail to impress, it’s not because of poor performances or a failure to control games, it’s because of an inability to convert chances into goals. Jenni Hermoso, a legend of the team, converted many of these chances in her day, but as she aged and began to phase out of the squad, a clear replacement had yet to be established. It seemed for some time that maybe Salma Paralluelo was that answer, and yet it’s the 32-year-old Esther Gonzalez who has taken up the #9 — to great effect. Esther is a true poacher, a lethal box threat that fits the Spanish system like a glove. At 5 '3, Esther rarely (never) towers over opposing defenders, but by consistently being in the right place at the right time, she’s unstoppable in and around the six-yard box.
At the Euros, Esther has logged the highest VAEP per 97 above positional average of any player with 2.78. Against Italy, Esther played just 19 minutes but logged 0.95 VAEP, third highest for Spanish players in that game. It was against Portugal where she really shined, though. Esther’s 2.67 VAEP was a 99.8 percentile value when compared to our VAEP dataset2.
The last time out at a major tournament (Paris Olympics) for Spain was a disappointment. Despite reaching the semi-finals, Spain ended the tournament with two consecutive losses, showing major signs of weakness. Those concerns are all but gone now, as the team has scored 14 goals through three games and has led the tournament in total VAEP. Esther was not on the Spanish Olympics roster. She is a key cog now. Her performances so far have been unrivalled. If she continues to play at that level for the rest of the tournament, there’s likely no stopping Spain.
2. After a slow start, England showed quality against Wales
The Lionesses created and scored so many chances against Wales, that they recorded the highest VAEP total for a single team in a group stage game. They are the only team to not top their group on points whilst topping the group on total VAEP. This reflects how much they turned up against the Netherlands and Wales in order to bounce back from their loss to France.
England only needed the first half to put Wales to the sword and Ella Toone had herself a field day, wracking up 1.56 VAEP in 45 mins. Lauren James is the only English player to record a higher single game VAEP total — 2.05 vs the Dutch.
Outside of her three shots on target, Toone’s most dangerously valued actions were two receptions. One was prior to her goal, and the second was in the sequence shown below3 where Toone and LJ combined to set Russo up in some lovely link up play down England’s right.
The Lionesses will have renewed confidence going into the quarter finals after their wobble against France. They have been the second most dangerous team in the competition (after Spain) — based on offensive VAEP. However, a much sterner test than Wales is coming up for England in the form of Sweden. The Rytting Kaneryd, Holmberg, Angeldahl triangle on Sweden’s right hand side is their most dangerous weapon. Unfortunately for England, the left hand side of their defence seems to be a slight weakness — as we saw against France. The winner of this battle on the pitch may well be the winner of the game.
3. Switzerland has been one of the worst teams, yet still made the QFs
Switzerland are riding their host-nation-inspired-luck right now. They recorded the lowest total VAEP amongst all teams in the group stages — and somehow still managed to make the Quarter Finals!
Switzerland has the lowest defensive VAEP in the competition — while this can be impacted by style of play, in Switzerland’s case it shows that the defense has been largely ineffective in resisting opposing pressure. Instead, they’ve had to rely on their goalkeeper, Livia Peng, whose performances have been impressive so far — she has been in the top VAEP quartile in all three games. While having a great goalkeeper can carry teams through a competition, overly relying on a goalie’s performances can spell danger in the future.
It’s on the other end of the pitch where the real issues arise. Switzerland has the lowest offensive VAEP of any team left in the competition. The hosts will next face the team that knocked them out of their last major tournament — Spain, who thumped them 5-1 in the World Cup RO16. Considering all the stats this team is lucky to have got this far — they are running on vibes and some youngsters in their front line balling out. A quarterfinal exit is all but inevitable for the Swiss.
4. Netherlands flopped in group of death
Group D(eath) took the Netherlands as its casualty. There was always going to be a big name heading home from Group D, and yet the way the Netherlands played against England made you wonder if they even turned up to the tournament in the first place.
Vivianne Miedema had a 94.3 percentile game against the Welsh in game one, scoring the opening goal. However, her 1.2 percentile performance against England and subsequent no-show against France meant she ended the tournament with a 0.7 VAEP per 97, half of the 1.5 VAEP per 97 she had last season for Manchester City in the WSL. And yet, despite her underperformance, remarkably, Miedema was the third highest VAEP per 97 performer for the Netherlands at the Euros.
Esmee Brugts and Victoria Pelova the only players to surpass Miedema in VAEP per 97 during the tournament. Pelova was the only Dutch player to score more than once, and her total VAEP against France was the best from any Dutch player across the three games. Apart from these three players (plus Jill Roord), the rest of the Netherlands squad all ended the tournament with below average per 97 VAEP values. It was a string of poor showings with some stars who were unable to truly shine. Kerstin Casparij finished the tournament as the lowest ranked player on VAEP (-0.02) and was particularly poor against France (0.4 percentile) — a little more football, a little less Tinder may be advisable4. Disappointment across the board from the Dutch.
5. These youngsters are making waves
While a few familiar names have stood out so far this tournament — Vicky Lopez, Jule Brand, and Aggie Beever-Jones are hardly “under-the-radar” — a few surprises have topped the charts. Signe Gaupset, a Norwegian midfielder who recently turned 20 and plays at SK Brann, has been one of the breakout stars. Her 1.31 VAEP per 97 through 146 minutes has been one of the bright spots in the Norway squad this tournament. While the youngster still has two years remaining on her contract5, she is certainly making her case for a big money move in the near future.
At just 18, Smilla Holmberg has made herself known in this Sweden team with a great performance against Germany in particular, where she scored a somewhat fortuitous goal.
She makes up one part of the Rytting Kaneryd, Holmberg, Angeldahl triangle mentioned earlier, and her willingness to get forward makes her an attacking threat as well as a solid defender — Holmberg has the highest defending VAEP per 97 of any defender on the Swedish team.
A more established player, Aggie Beever-Jones has made the most for her limited minutes up top for England. In just 45 minutes, ABJ has logged 1.35 total VAEP (2.9 VAEP per 97, highest among English players) alongside 1 goal and 1 assist. Players like ABJ will make all the difference as the tournament progresses; squad depth is a major differentiator in international tournaments. Emma Hayes once said in a post match interview that Beever-Jones would be “a legend not just for Chelsea but for England” and it’s hard to bet against that right now.
https://socceraction.readthedocs.io/en/latest/documentation/valuing_actions/atomic_vaep.html
VAEP dataset is 2024 and 2025 NWSL, 2025 NSL, 2023/24 and 2024/25 WSL, Liga F, Première Ligue, Frauen-Bundesliga, Serie A Femminile, UEFA Women’s Champions League.
Graphic inspired by KU Leuven as shown in their Socceraction documentation
Actually, the Tinder ad is really cute and we both advise you go and watch it:
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