Finding the Perfect Fit: A Data-Driven Analysis of Gotham FC's Forward Line
Scouting Strategies and Insights for Gotham's Front Line
A team's playing style shapes its recruitment strategy. At NJ/NY Gotham FC, coach Juan Carlos Amorós has instilled an 'Organised Chaos' philosophy, targeting players who not only thrive in this high-energy system but also embody Gotham's relentless approach.
The figure below compares Gotham FC's touch events in the 2023 and 2024 NWSL seasons to date. Gotham take nearly 70% of their touches in the middle or final third, indicating a proactive approach. Compared to the league average, Gotham are more forward-focused in possession, with a higher proportion of touches in advanced areas. They also conceded the fewest progressive passes in the 2023 season, with only North Carolina Courage conceding fewer so far in 2024. This aligns with their high-press playing style, which restricts opponents from gaining ground in the final third.
Amorós has emphasised the importance of forwards who excel in 1v1 situations, wide play, and combination play. He often speaks about tactical adaptability and creativity, which are core principles in his approach. The overarching idea is to allow players the freedom to express themselves within a structured system that maintains organisation and defensive solidity. Gotham’s strategy involves pressing high and regaining possession in the opponent's half. Forwards must be comfortable in 1v1 situations, able to combine effectively across the front line, and committed to contributing defensively.
The question for this article is: How can data and analytics be used to identify forwards who would thrive in Gotham’s system?
I will primarily use 2023 NWSL data for this analysis to ensure a more complete dataset, as the 2024 season is only about 60% complete.
Goals and Shooting
A forward’s primary responsibility is to score goals, and this remains true for Gotham’s style of play. While actual goals are crucial, expected goals (xG) offer a comprehensive view of a forward’s performance by accounting for shot quality and location.
Below is a graph showing the cumulative xG progression for Gotham forwards who scored at least one goal during the 2023 NWSL season. Breaks in the lines indicate games missed by a player.
Lynn Williams finished the 2023 NWSL season with the 5th highest xG in the league and ranked joint 5th in goals scored (excluding the Championship game). Her numbers rank among the best in the league, setting a high benchmark for Gotham FC forwards. However, a forward doesn’t need to match Williams' numbers to be a good fit for Gotham. A more relevant question is: how does the return for a Gotham forward in the 2023 season compare to the NWSL average?
The graph above compares Gotham forwards to the league average across key metrics that define a forward’s output: goals, shots, shots on target, and xG. Williams led the league in shots and ranked second in shots on target, while also being in the top five for xG and goals, making her somewhat of an outlier in this sample. Margaret ‘Midge’ Purce and Yazmeen Ryan performed around the NWSL average, and González’s numbers are impressive given her late-season arrival. These figures highlight Gotham’s low-scoring season, suggesting the need for players who can achieve closer to the NWSL average in these metrics.
Comparing xG to actual goals scored provides insight into how clinical a player is. Gotham’s forwards generally matched or slightly exceeded their xG, indicating they capitalised on their better chances.
The data indicates that Gotham’s forwards were efficient with the chances they created in 2023, but the team was heavily reliant on Williams for goals. As Gotham looks to strengthen its squad, they should target a forward who not only takes more shots but also takes better shots—those with favourable angles, closer distances, and from through balls or cutbacks. Statistically, this would translate to an xG closer to the NWSL average of 3.3.
Defensive attributes
This article began by outlining Gotham’s playing style, including their high pressing. While this isn’t the full picture, it’s crucial when discussing forward play. A team that presses high needs forwards to initiate ball recovery in the opponent's half.
The graph above shows how Gotham forwards compare to the NWSL league average last season on a number of defensive actions: Tackles in the attacking third, Passes blocked, and Interceptions.
Lynn Williams has often been described as the best defensive attacker in the world. The numbers above support this, as she led the league in tackles in the attacking third, ranked second for passes blocked, and was the highest-ranked forward for interceptions.
Yazmeen Ryan also epitomises this gegenpressing forward, far exceeding the NWSL average across all defensive metrics. Interestingly the other Gotham forwards do not perform even close to the NWSL average. Defensive actions aren’t always easy to capture in data, as pressing often involves occupying spaces to disrupt the defence. This is understandably difficult to quantify in data.
Creativity
Amorós’ approach to football is anything but lacking in creativity. He encourages his forwards to express themselves on the pitch, making the game exciting for fans. As he puts it: “Because, as I always say, football is an art.”
Taking on defenders whilst dribbling and carrying the ball into penalty area seem like suitable metrics to assess how Gotham forwards fair in 1v1’s. The graph below shows Williams, Ryan and Purce far exceeding the league average on both accounts.
The graph above illustrates how Gotham forwards fare in receiving progressive passes, with Williams and Ryan standing out far above the league average. Progressive passes are those that move the ball toward the opponent's goal by at least 10 yards from its furthest point in the last six passes, or any completed pass into the penalty area. Receiving these passes showcases a forward's ability to exploit space, stretch play, and create problems for defenders on the pitch.
Case study: Ella Stevens
Ella Stevens was signed by Gotham at the beginning of the 2024 season and has since become a standout player, leading the team with 6 goals. This marks her best goal-scoring season in the league so far. But what did Gotham see in her data beyond the surface-level stats that made Juan Carlos Amorós declare Stevens "a great fit for our system" upon signing her?
Goals and Shooting
Stevens' productivity in front of goal last season was modest. The graph below illustrates how her 2023 numbers compare to Gotham's forwards and the NWSL average. With an xG of 2.7—below the league average—she scored 4 goals in 15 games and took 19 shots, 7 of which were on target. To be fair to Stevens, these numbers should be contextualised by her time with the Chicago Red Stars, who had the lowest xG and the third fewest goals in the league in 2023. Despite these challenges, Stevens has consistently outperformed her xG while playing in the NWSL, indicating her quality as a finisher.
Gotham also struggled to score last season, netting the same number of goals as the Red Stars. However, they created significantly more chances, reflected in their higher xG. This is where a player like Stevens, who excels at finishing, becomes invaluable in converting those opportunities.
Fast forward to 2024, and the graph below comparing Gotham’s front line to the NWSL average makes it clear that Stevens has shouldered much of the scoring burden, currently leading the team with 6 goals. She’s already set a personal best for goals and assists in a season, and we’re just past the halfway mark.
Stevens has the highest xG among Gotham forwards this season, despite having the fewest shots and shots on target, further highlighting her clinical finishing. But it’s not just her goal-scoring that stands out—her role in setting up her teammates is equally crucial. This playmaking ability is likely another key reason Gotham signed her.
Creativity
In 2023, Stevens posted impressive xA (Expected Assists) and xAG (Expected Assisted Goals) numbers, outperforming both the NWSL average and Gotham’s forwards.
Both xA and xAG underscore a player's creativity and ability to deliver threatening balls into scoring areas—something Stevens excelled at last season. In fact, she ranked third in the league for throughballs, showcasing her knack for creating dangerous chances.
Stevens has carried this creative form into 2024, as shown (above) by her team-high numbers in xA per 90 and xAG per 90. Her assists figures show these chances are being converted more frequently at Gotham, likely due to the quality of forwards she’s now playing alongside, compared to her time with the Red Stars.
Defensive attributes
Upon signing Stevens, Juan Carlos Amorós remarked, "Ella is a very hard-working forward, who can affect the game on the attacking and defensive end." While we’ve covered her attacking contributions, her defensive work is equally vital to Gotham’s playing style.
Stevens was second only to Lynn Williams in tackles made in the attacking third last season. If she had been a Gotham player in 2023, her numbers would have placed her third in the team for blocking passes and interceptions as well.
These defensive stats are even more impressive considering she was playing for the Red Stars, a team that doesn’t press as aggressively as Gotham. This suggests that Stevens’ defensive actions and pressure events are instinctive, requiring little adjustment to fit Gotham’s system.
Looking at the 2024 data, Stevens has maintained this defensive intensity, currently (joint) second to Williams in tackles made in the attacking third and ranking as Gotham’s second-best player in blocking passes per 90 minutes.
A deeper dive into the data reveals why Gotham signed Ella Stevens and demonstrates how she has hit the ground running at her new club. She has brought all the attributes that attracted Gotham’s attention and added more goals and assists to her game—a dream scenario for any forward. I believe Ella Stevens is the underrated signing of the 2024 season—if such a title existed.
Future Gotham FC forwards
I wanted to explore some other leagues around the world to identify forwards whose data profiles suggest they could thrive at Gotham FC. I focused on players from two top-division leagues: the A-League Women (Australia) and Liga F (Spain).
Sophie Harding stands out as a promising prospect from the A-League Women. She finished the 2023/24 season with 12 goals, tying for the second-highest in the league while playing for a mid-table team. Harding led the league in both shots and shots on target and outperformed her xG by 1.8 goals. Her creativity on the ball is evident as she ranked second in the league for progressive carries and carries into the penalty box.
Additionally, Harding's defensive work aligns well with Gotham's front-line demands—she was third in the league for tackles in the attacking third and the highest-ranked forward for blocking passes. These combined statistics suggest that Harding could be a strong fit across Gotham's front line, bringing both attacking prowess and defensive work rate.
Rasheedat Ajibade from Liga F is another player whose profile aligns well with Gotham's needs. Ajibade was the joint 8th top scorer in the league with 10 goals, exceeding her xG by 1.6. She ranked in the top 7 for shots and joint 8th for shots on target. Defensively, Ajibade excelled, ranking second in the league for passes blocked (the highest among forwards) and joint top 5 for tackles in the attacking third.
Her playmaking ability is also notable—Ajibade was joint 6th in assists and ranked 7th for passes into the penalty area. She was third in the league for progressive carries and 5th for carries into the penalty box. Ajibade also ranked third for progressive passes received, topped the league for attempted take-ons, and was in the top 3 for successful take-ons.
These attributes suggest that Ajibade would not only bring a goal-scoring threat to Gotham but also contribute significantly to their defensive efforts and creativity in the final third.
Final thoughts
Scouting and recruitment cannot be done purely from data. While I have not included video clips in this write-up, it’s important to note that video analysis and data go hand in hand in football analytics. There are some things data just cannot show, such as a player’s attitude, work ethic, or leadership skills. Moreover, the data I’ve used is mostly based on on-the-ball metrics, which limits insight into a player’s off-the-ball movements, such as the runs they make to create space, how well they press in a high-press system, or their ability to find space.
All this to say, event data tells us a lot but it’s not the whole picture. Combining data with video analysis and understanding the context of a player’s performance provides a more complete evaluation, which is essential in making informed recruitment decisions.
Stay tuned for more in-depth analyses and insights into the beautiful game!
Data source: Fbref as of 27/08/2024